Report Reviews DHS Approach To Risk Analysis

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, including terrorism, natural disasters, and pandemics -- and risk analysis is an essential part of fulfilling that responsibility. This report, undertaken by units across the National Research Council, evaluates risk assessment methods employed by the DHS, concluding that risk analysis capabilities are strong in the area of natural disaster response, but substantial improvement is needed in other areas.

Although the conceptual framework used by DHS to analyze risk appears generally appropriate, the deployment of that framework is frequently deficient. The DHS' risk analysis with regard to natural disasters is mature, employing techniques that are subject to quality assurance and control, as well as verification and validation procedures. Risk analysis capabilities with regard to areas beyond natural disasters, however, are not yet adequate for supporting DHS decision-making because their validity and reliability are untested. Recommendations for addressing these deficiencies are offered, including expanding beyond the quantitative approach that has defined DHS risk analysis to this point.

Key Findings

1. A fully integrated analysis that aggregates widely disparate risks by use of a common metric is not a practical goal and in fact is likely to be inaccurate or misleading given the current state of knowledge of methods used in quantitative risk analysis. The risks presented by terrorist attack and natural disasters cannot be combined in one meaningful indicator of risk, and so an all-hazards risk assessment is not practical. The science of risk analysis does not yet support the kind of reductions in diverse metrics that such a purely quantitative analysis would require. Qualitative comparisons can help illuminate the discussion of risks and thus aid decision makers.

2. DHS has established a conceptual framework for risk analysis (risk is a function of threat (T), vulnerability (V), and consequence (C), or R = f(T,V,C)) that, generally speaking, appears appropriate for decomposing risk and organizing information, and it has built models, data streams, and processes for executing risk analyses for some of its various missions.

3. DHS's risk analysis models for natural hazards are near the state of the art. These models -- which are applied mostly to earthquake, flood, and hurricane hazards -- are based on extensive data, have been validated empirically, and appear well suited to near-term decision needs.

4. The basic risk framework of Risk = f(T,V,C) used by DHS is sound and in accord with accepted practice in the risk analysis field. DHS'operationalization of that framework -- its assessment of individual components of risk and their integration into a measure of risk -- is in many cases seriously deficient and is in need of major revision. More attention is urgently needed at DHS to assessing and communicating the assumptions underlying and the uncertainties surrounding analyses of risk, particularly those associated with terrorism. Until these deficiencies are improved, only low confidence should be placed in most of the risk analyses conducted by DHS.

5. With the exception of risk analysis for natural disaster preparedness, the committee did not find any DHS risk analysis capabilities and methods that are yet adequate for supporting DHS decision making, because their validity and reliability are untested. Moreover, it is not yet clear that DHS is on a trajectory for development of methods and capability that is sufficient to ensure reliable risk analyses other than for natural disasters.

For more information, visit http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12972.

Featured

  • Integration Imagination: The Future of Connected Operations

    Security teams that collaborate cross-functionally and apply imagination and creativity to envision and design their ideal integrated ecosystem will have the biggest upside to corporate security and operational benefits. Read Now

  • Smarter Access Starts with Flexibility

    Today’s workplaces are undergoing a rapid evolution, driven by hybrid work models, emerging smart technologies, and flexible work schedules. To keep pace with growing workplace demands, buildings are becoming more dynamic – capable of adapting to how people move, work, and interact in real-time. Read Now

  • Trends Keeping an Eye on Business Decisions

    Today, AI continues to transform the way data is used to make important business decisions. AI and the cloud together are redefining how video surveillance systems are being used to simulate human intelligence by combining data analysis, prediction, and process automation with minimal human intervention. Many organizations are upgrading their surveillance systems to reap the benefits of technologies like AI and cloud applications. Read Now

  • The Future is Happening Outside the Cloud

    For years, the cloud has captivated the physical security industry. And for good reason. Remote access, elastic scalability and simplified maintenance reshaped how we think about deploying and managing systems. But as the number of cameras grows and resolutions push from HD to 4K and beyond, the cloud’s limits are becoming unavoidable. Bandwidth bottlenecks. Latency lags. Rising storage costs. These are not abstract concerns. Read Now

  • Right-Wing Activist Charlie Kirk Dies After Utah Valley University Shooting

    Charlie Kirk, a popular conservative activist and founder of Turning Point USA, died Wednesday after being shot during an on-campus event at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah Read Now

New Products

  • PE80 Series

    PE80 Series by SARGENT / ED4000/PED5000 Series by Corbin Russwin

    ASSA ABLOY, a global leader in access solutions, has announced the launch of two next generation exit devices from long-standing leaders in the premium exit device market: the PE80 Series by SARGENT and the PED4000/PED5000 Series by Corbin Russwin. These new exit devices boast industry-first features that are specifically designed to provide enhanced safety, security and convenience, setting new standards for exit solutions. The SARGENT PE80 and Corbin Russwin PED4000/PED5000 Series exit devices are engineered to meet the ever-evolving needs of modern buildings. Featuring the high strength, security and durability that ASSA ABLOY is known for, the new exit devices deliver several innovative, industry-first features in addition to elegant design finishes for every opening.

  • EasyGate SPT and SPD

    EasyGate SPT SPD

    Security solutions do not have to be ordinary, let alone unattractive. Having renewed their best-selling speed gates, Cominfo has once again demonstrated their Art of Security philosophy in practice — and confirmed their position as an industry-leading manufacturers of premium speed gates and turnstiles.

  • Connect ONE’s powerful cloud-hosted management platform provides the means to tailor lockdowns and emergency mass notifications throughout a facility – while simultaneously alerting occupants to hazards or next steps, like evacuation.

    Connect ONE®

    Connect ONE’s powerful cloud-hosted management platform provides the means to tailor lockdowns and emergency mass notifications throughout a facility – while simultaneously alerting occupants to hazards or next steps, like evacuation.