Study: Federal Gun Policy Prompted Dramatic Increase in the Flow of Guns to Criminals

Researchers at the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research found that the number of guns that were linked to crimes increased dramatically after Congress adopted measures aimed to reduce the risks gun dealers face if they divert guns to criminals

The study is the first to examine the impact of these amendments on the diversion of guns to criminals and was recently published online in the peer-reviewed Journal of Urban Health.

The Tiahrt amendments became law in 2003 and prohibit the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) from releasing data from crime gun traces. Gun traces reveal when, where and from whom a gun recovered from a crime was originally purchased. In 2004, the Tiahrt amendments further restricted crime gun-trace data by limiting access to government officials and prohibiting the use of these data in firearm dealer license revocations and civil law suits. In addition, the law prohibits ATF from requiring gun dealers to do a physical inventory of their firearms for compliance inspections and requires the FBI to destroy data from background checks of gun purchasers within 24 hours.

In 1999, ATF data showed that Badger Guns & Ammo, a Milwaukee-area gun shop, led the nation's gun dealers with the most gun sales later linked to crime gun traces. Shortly after the announcement, the gun shop's owner announced that the store would no longer sell small, poorly made handguns (sometimes referred to as "junk guns") that are commonly linked to crime.

Data from the new Johns Hopkins study indicate that the gun dealer apparently adhered to that policy for approximately 14 months, a period in which the number of guns sold by Badger Guns & Ammo and diverted to criminals declined by 66 percent. Reductions were observed for junk guns as well as other types of guns sold by Badger. After the Tiahrt amendments went into effect, guns diverted to criminals soon after being sold by Badger increased by 203 percent. The increase in the flow of guns from Badger to criminals following the adoption of the Tiahrt amendments, however, was not limited to junk guns. The study found no Tiahrt amendment-related increase in the number of guns sold by all other gun dealers that were diverted to criminals.

"Our findings suggest that changes to federal gun policy prompted a dramatic increase in the flow of guns to criminals from a gun dealer whose practices have frequently been of concern to law enforcement and public safety advocates," said lead study author Daniel Webster, ScD, MPH, co-director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research and professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Webster added, "The fact that the ATF took action which led the gun dealer to surrender his license in 2006 supports the idea that the large increase in Badger's guns diverted to criminals was related to gun dealer practices."

Study co-author and Center co-director Jon Vernick, JD, MPH, said, "our findings are consistent with other research that has shown that greater oversight and regulation of gun sellers is linked with fewer guns diverted to criminals shortly after retail sales."

For the study, researchers examined data from firearms recovered by the Milwaukee Police Department and traced by the ATF from 1996 through 2006. Data for guns traced during 2003 to 2006 when the Tiahrt restrictions on ATF were in place were obtained from the Milwaukee Police Department. The number of firearms recovered by police less than a year following retail sale from someone other than the legal purchaser was used to track trends in illegal gun transfers.

Congress recently passed another appropriations bill with an amendment that makes permanent most of the protections for gun sellers that in prior Tiahrt amendments been limited to the fiscal year covered under appropriations bills.

Featured

  • Security Today Announces The Govies Government Security Award Winners for 2025

    Security Today is pleased to announce the 2025 winners in The Govies Government Security Awards. The awards honor outstanding government security products in a variety of categories. Read Now

  • Survey: 60 Percent of Organizations Using AI in IT Infrastructure

    Netwrix, a cybersecurity provider focused on data and identity threats, today announced the release of its annual global 2025 Cybersecurity Trends Report based on a global survey of 2,150 IT and security professionals from 121 countries. It reveals that 60% of organizations are already using artificial intelligence (AI) in their IT infrastructure and 30% are considering implementing AI. Read Now

  • New Research Reveals Global Video Surveillance Industry Perspectives on AI

    Axis Communications, the global industry leader in video surveillance, has released its latest research report, ‘The State of AI in Video Surveillance,’ which explores global industry perspectives on the use of AI in the security industry and beyond. The report reveals current attitudes on AI technologies thanks to in-depth interviews with AI experts from Axis’ global network and a comprehensive survey of more than 5,800 respondents, including distributors, channel partners, and end customers across 68 countries. The resulting insights cover AI integration and the opportunities and challenges that exist with regard to security, safety, business intelligence, and operational efficiency. Read Now

  • SIA Urges Tariff Relief for Security Industry Products

    Today, the Security Industry Association has sent a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick requesting relief from tariffs for security industry products and asking that the Trump administration formulate a process that allows companies to apply for product-specific exemptions. The security industry is an important segment of the U.S. economy, contributing over $430 billion in total economic impact and supporting over 2.1 million jobs. Read Now

  • Report Shows Cybercriminals Continue Pivot to Stealthier Tactics

    IBM recently released the 2025 X-Force Threat Intelligence Index highlighting that cybercriminals continued to pivot to stealthier tactics, with lower-profile credential theft spiking, while ransomware attacks on enterprises declined. IBM X-Force observed an 84% increase in emails delivering infostealers in 2024 compared to the prior year, a method threat actors relied heavily on to scale identity attacks. Read Now

New Products

  • Connect ONE’s powerful cloud-hosted management platform provides the means to tailor lockdowns and emergency mass notifications throughout a facility – while simultaneously alerting occupants to hazards or next steps, like evacuation.

    Connect ONE®

    Connect ONE’s powerful cloud-hosted management platform provides the means to tailor lockdowns and emergency mass notifications throughout a facility – while simultaneously alerting occupants to hazards or next steps, like evacuation.

  • AC Nio

    AC Nio

    Aiphone, a leading international manufacturer of intercom, access control, and emergency communication products, has introduced the AC Nio, its access control management software, an important addition to its new line of access control solutions.

  • Hanwha QNO-7012R

    Hanwha QNO-7012R

    The Q Series cameras are equipped with an Open Platform chipset for easy and seamless integration with third-party systems and solutions, and analog video output (CVBS) support for easy camera positioning during installation. A suite of on-board intelligent video analytics covers tampering, directional/virtual line detection, defocus detection, enter/exit, and motion detection.