Analysis of 15 Failed Terrorist Plots Against Surface Transportation Provides Insight into Tactics, Weapons

The Mineta Transportation Institute has released its newest research report, Carnage Interrupted: An Analysis of Fifteen Terrorist Plots Against Public Surface Transportation, which examines several factors in 13 plots that authorities uncovered and foiled before attacks could be carried out. It also presents an additional two cases in which terrorists attempted to carry out attacks that failed. Principal investigators were Brian Michael Jenkins and Joseph Trella.

"We can learn much from terrorists' failures," said Mr. Jenkins, "because they provide insights into terrorist ambitions, clues to possible new directions in tactics and weapons, and details about how the plots evolve. These details often are more difficult to discern when an attack has succeeded and its perpetrators are dead or have fled."

The reports analyze plots in the West from 1997-2012, primarily in the United States and the United Kingdom because they have been frequent targets. These incidents have involved publicized arrests and trials, which provide additional information.

Among others, the 15 plots include:

  • 1997 – Flatbush Plot (New York)
  • 2002 – Poison Gas on London Underground Plot
  • 2004 – Herald Square Bomb Plot (New York)
  • 2005 – Melbourne and Sydney Terrorist Plots
  • 2006 – Milan Metro Bomb Plot
  • 2006 – Attempted German Train Bombings (Cologne)
  • 2008 – Barcelona Metro Bomb Plot
  • 2009 – Zazi Bomb Plot (New York)

  • 2010 – Washington Metro Bomb Plot (Washington, DC)

Jenkins explains that these plots were part of an ongoing global campaign of terrorism directed against a variety of targets in Western nations. The campaign was inspired by continuing exhortations from al Qaeda and waged by individuals or small groups determined to be part of the global armed struggle.

The report describes each plot in terms of the terrorists' plan, their motivation, objective, target selection, tactics and weapons, reconnaissance, timing, security measures in place at the target, and how the plot was disrupted.

Jenkins said, "Terrorists tend to imitate what's been done before, so they will try to replicate attacks -- including targets, tactics, and techniques -- that they see as successful. It is not possible to identify the source of inspiration or instruction for all of the 15 cases, but some spectacular precedents are likely to have inspired these plots. For example, four of the plots involved chemical or biological substances -- poison gas or ricin. It seems highly likely that the plotters in these cases had in mind the 1995 sarin attack in Tokyo, where terrorists dispersed nerve gas in subways, killing 12 and sending over 5,000 to hospitals. Further inspiration and instruction came from al Qaeda's own interest in chemical and biological weapons."

Jenkins further noted that none of these exotic plots succeeded. Indeed few progressed beyond the talking stage, and it seems doubtful that any would have resulted in mass casualties.

"By mid-decade the poison fad was over," he said. "Meanwhile, terrorists in Madrid and London demonstrated that by using more reliable explosive devices on trains and subways, terrorists could achieve the slaughter they desired. Multiple bombs became the new prototype for terrorist attacks, a pattern that continued through the end of the decade."

The complete report is available for free download at http://transweb.sjsu.edu/project/2979.html.

Featured

  • Making the Grade with Locks and Door Hardware

    Managing and maintaining locks and door hardware across a school district or university campus is a big responsibility. A building’s security needs to change over time as occupancy and use demands evolve, which can make it even more challenging. Knowing the basics of common door hardware, including locks, panic devices and door closers, can make a difference in daily operations and emergency situations. Read Now

  • Choosing the Right Solution

    Today, there is a strong shift from on-prem installations to cloud or hybrid-cloud deployments. As reported in the 2024 Genetec State of Physical Security report, 66% of end users said they will move to managing or storing more physical security in the cloud over the next two years. Read Now

  • New Report Reveals Top Security Risks for U.S. Retail Chains

    Interface Systems, a provider of security, actionable insights, and purpose-built networks for multi-location businesses, has released its 2024 State of Remote Video Monitoring in Retail Chains report. The detailed study analyzed over 2 million monitoring requests across 4,156 retail locations in the United States from September 2023 to August 2024. Read Now

  • Gaining a Competitive Edge

    Ask most companies about their future technology plans and the answers will most likely include AI. Then ask how they plan to deploy it, and that is where the responses may start to vary. Every company has unique surveillance requirements that are based on market focus, scale, scope, risk tolerance, geographic area and, of course, budget. Those factors all play a role in deciding how to configure a surveillance system, and how to effectively implement technologies like AI. Read Now

Featured Cybersecurity

Webinars

New Products

  • AC Nio

    AC Nio

    Aiphone, a leading international manufacturer of intercom, access control, and emergency communication products, has introduced the AC Nio, its access control management software, an important addition to its new line of access control solutions. 3

  • Compact IP Video Intercom

    Viking’s X-205 Series of intercoms provide HD IP video and two-way voice communication - all wrapped up in an attractive compact chassis. 3

  • Luma x20

    Luma x20

    Snap One has announced its popular Luma x20 family of surveillance products now offers even greater security and privacy for home and business owners across the globe by giving them full control over integrators’ system access to view live and recorded video. According to Snap One Product Manager Derek Webb, the new “customer handoff” feature provides enhanced user control after initial installation, allowing the owners to have total privacy while also making it easy to reinstate integrator access when maintenance or assistance is required. This new feature is now available to all Luma x20 users globally. “The Luma x20 family of surveillance solutions provides excellent image and audio capture, and with the new customer handoff feature, it now offers absolute privacy for camera feeds and recordings,” Webb said. “With notifications and integrator access controlled through the powerful OvrC remote system management platform, it’s easy for integrators to give their clients full control of their footage and then to get temporary access from the client for any troubleshooting needs.” 3