Analysis of 15 Failed Terrorist Plots Against Surface Transportation Provides Insight into Tactics, Weapons

The Mineta Transportation Institute has released its newest research report, Carnage Interrupted: An Analysis of Fifteen Terrorist Plots Against Public Surface Transportation, which examines several factors in 13 plots that authorities uncovered and foiled before attacks could be carried out. It also presents an additional two cases in which terrorists attempted to carry out attacks that failed. Principal investigators were Brian Michael Jenkins and Joseph Trella.

"We can learn much from terrorists' failures," said Mr. Jenkins, "because they provide insights into terrorist ambitions, clues to possible new directions in tactics and weapons, and details about how the plots evolve. These details often are more difficult to discern when an attack has succeeded and its perpetrators are dead or have fled."

The reports analyze plots in the West from 1997-2012, primarily in the United States and the United Kingdom because they have been frequent targets. These incidents have involved publicized arrests and trials, which provide additional information.

Among others, the 15 plots include:

  • 1997 – Flatbush Plot (New York)
  • 2002 – Poison Gas on London Underground Plot
  • 2004 – Herald Square Bomb Plot (New York)
  • 2005 – Melbourne and Sydney Terrorist Plots
  • 2006 – Milan Metro Bomb Plot
  • 2006 – Attempted German Train Bombings (Cologne)
  • 2008 – Barcelona Metro Bomb Plot
  • 2009 – Zazi Bomb Plot (New York)

  • 2010 – Washington Metro Bomb Plot (Washington, DC)

Jenkins explains that these plots were part of an ongoing global campaign of terrorism directed against a variety of targets in Western nations. The campaign was inspired by continuing exhortations from al Qaeda and waged by individuals or small groups determined to be part of the global armed struggle.

The report describes each plot in terms of the terrorists' plan, their motivation, objective, target selection, tactics and weapons, reconnaissance, timing, security measures in place at the target, and how the plot was disrupted.

Jenkins said, "Terrorists tend to imitate what's been done before, so they will try to replicate attacks -- including targets, tactics, and techniques -- that they see as successful. It is not possible to identify the source of inspiration or instruction for all of the 15 cases, but some spectacular precedents are likely to have inspired these plots. For example, four of the plots involved chemical or biological substances -- poison gas or ricin. It seems highly likely that the plotters in these cases had in mind the 1995 sarin attack in Tokyo, where terrorists dispersed nerve gas in subways, killing 12 and sending over 5,000 to hospitals. Further inspiration and instruction came from al Qaeda's own interest in chemical and biological weapons."

Jenkins further noted that none of these exotic plots succeeded. Indeed few progressed beyond the talking stage, and it seems doubtful that any would have resulted in mass casualties.

"By mid-decade the poison fad was over," he said. "Meanwhile, terrorists in Madrid and London demonstrated that by using more reliable explosive devices on trains and subways, terrorists could achieve the slaughter they desired. Multiple bombs became the new prototype for terrorist attacks, a pattern that continued through the end of the decade."

The complete report is available for free download at http://transweb.sjsu.edu/project/2979.html.

Featured

Featured Cybersecurity

Webinars

New Products

  • Unique Oversized ID Card Printer

    Unique Oversized ID Card Printer

    Idesco Corp. is announcing its card printer – the XCR100 2.0 printer- that allows customers to personalize oversized ID cards on demand. The printer is ideal for assisting healthcare organizations find the right badging solution. As healthcare facilities continue to combat the spread of COVID-19, issuing oversized ID cards has helped identify staff clearly while adding an extra layer of security. The XCR100 2.0 printer is the only dye-sublimation printer on the market that can personalize CR100 cards (3.88" x 2.63"). The cards that are 42% larger than the standard credit card size. The printer can produce up to 180 full cards per hour in color, and up to 1,400 cards per hour in monochrome. An optional flipper is available to print dual-sided badges in one pass. Contactless encoding comes as an option to help healthcare facilities produce secure access badges on demand and the card printer features a 2-year warranty. 3

  • XS4 Original+

    XS4 Original+

    The SALTO XS4 Original+ design is based on the same proven housing and mechanical mechanisms of the XS4 Original. The XS4 Original+, however, is embedded with SALTO’s BLUEnet real-time functionality and SVN-Flex capability that enables SALTO stand-alone smart XS4 Original+ locks to update user credentials directly at the door. Compatible with the array of SALTO platform solutions including SALTO Space data-on-card, SALTO KS Keys as a Service cloud-based access solution, and SALTO’s JustIn Mobile technology for digital keys. The XS4 Original+ also includes RFID Mifare DESFire, Bluetooth LE and NFC technology functionality. 3

  • Kangaroo Home Security System

    Kangaroo Home Security System

    Kangaroo is the affordable, easy-to-install home security system designed for anyone who wants an added layer of peace of mind and protection. It has several products, ranging from the fan-favorite Doorbell Camera + Chime, to the more comprehensive Front Door Security Kit with Professional Monitoring. Regardless of the level of desired security, Kangaroo’s designed to move with consumers - wherever that next chapter may be. Motion sensors, keypads and additional features can be part of the package to any Kangaroo system in place, anytime. Additionally, Kangaroo offers scalable protection plans with a variety of benefits ranging from 24/7 professional monitoring to expanded cloud storage, coverage for damage and theft. 3